A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
